上海自贸区的经济增长效应研究——基于面板数据下的反事实分析方法Study on Economic Growth Effect of Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone Based on Counterfactual Analysis with Panel Data
谭娜;周先波;林建浩;
摘要(Abstract)：
本文运用前沿的反事实分析方法,基于我国31个省市的工业增加值增长率和进出口总额增长率的月度数据,对上海自贸区成立的经济增长效应进行了评估。结果发现,上海自贸区成立对上海经济增长具有显著的正效应,分别提升上海市工业增加值和进出口总额月同比增长率2.69和6.73个百分点,且此结果关于自贸区成立时点的变化、控制组的外生性假设、变量选择准则的使用等都具有稳健性。
关键词(KeyWords)： 上海自贸区;经济增长效应;反事实分析
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(71371199);; 广东省自然科学基金项目(2014A030310478)
作者(Author): 谭娜;周先波;林建浩;
Email:
DOI: 10.13510/j.cnki.jit.2015.10.003
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- 1AIC准则的计算公式为AIC(k)=T1ln(e'e/T1)+2(k+2),k为控制组中最适宜包含的省市个数,e为OLS估计得到的残差。
- 2AICc准则的计算公式为AICc(k)=AIC(k)+2(k+2)(k+3)T含的省市个数。1-(k+1)-2,k为控制组中包