魏浩;袁然;苏航;

• 1:北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院
• 2:中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

摘要(Abstract)：

本文利用2004—2015年中国与OECD国家之间的双边国际人才流动和贸易数据,实证检验了国际人才流动对中国消费品出口贸易的影响。研究结果发现:国际人才流入、国际人才流出对中国消费品出口规模和出口商品结构的影响存在明显的差异性。国际人才流入有利于带动中国消费品出口规模的增长,但是,这种规模效应主要体现在促进我国低技术消费品和中技术消费品出口规模的增长;相比而言,国际人才流出对我国消费品出口规模的整体促进作用并不显著,但是,会通过带动高技术消费品出口规模的增长进而推动我国消费品出口商品结构的优化。多种方法检验证明本文的研究结论是稳健的。政府应该高度重视国际人才在出口贸易特别是消费品出口中的作用,加强国际人才网络的构建,服务"稳外贸"目标,推动出口高质量发展。

关键词(KeyWords)： 国际人才流动;消费品出口;高技术消费品;出口规模;出口商品结构

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目“国际人才跨国流动及其经济效应研究”(71773008)

作者(Author): 魏浩;袁然;苏航;

Email:

DOI: 10.13510/j.cnki.jit.2020.10.005

参考文献(References)：

• [1]OECD. The Global Competition for Talent:Mobility of the Highly Skilled[M]. Paris:OECD Publishing,2008.
• [2] OECD. Education at a Glance 2017[M]. Paris:OECD Publishing,2017.
• [3] MAHROUM S. Highly Skilled Globetrotters:Mapping the International Migration of Human Capital[J]. R&D Management,2000,30(1):674-688.
• [4] IIE. Project Atlas Infographics 2017[EB/OL]. http://www. iie. org/Research-and-Insights/Project-Atlas/Tools/Current-Infographics.
• [5] GOULD D M. Immigrant Links to the Home Country:Empirical Implications for U. S. Bilateral Trade Flows[J].The Review of Economic and Statistics,1994,76(2):302-316.
• [6] HEAD K,RIES J. Immigration and Trade Creation:Econometric Evidence from Canada[J]. The Canadian Journal of Economic,1998,31(1):47-62.
• [7] RAUCH J E,TRINDADE V. Ethnic Chinese Networks in International Trade[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2002,84(1):116-130.
• [8] FELBERMAYR G J,TOUBAL F. Revisiting the Trade-migration Nexus:Evidence from New OECD Data[J].World Development,2012,40(5):928-937.
• [9] ALEKSYNSKA M,PERI G. Isolating the Network Effect of Immigrants on Trade[J]. The World Economy,2014,37(3):434-455.
• [10] ARTAL-TUR A,PALLARD-LPEZ V J,REQUENA-SILVENTE F. The Trade-enhancing Effect of Immigration Networks:New Evidence on the Role of Geographic Proximity[J]. Economic Letters,2012,116(3):554-557.
• [11] MURAT M,PISTORESI B. Links between Migration and Trade:Evidence from Italy[J]. Economic of Diversity,2006(9):22-23.
• [12] DUNLEVY J A. The Influence of Corruption and Language on the Pro-trade Effect of Immigrants:Evidence from the American States[J]. The Review of Economic and Statistics,2006,88(1):182-186.
• [13] FELBERMAYR G J,JUNG B,TOUBAL F. Ethnic Networks,Information and International Trade:Revisiting the Evidence[J]. Annals of Economic and Statistics,2010(97):41-70.
• [14]杨汝岱，李艳.移民网络与企业出口边界动态演变[J]．经济研究，2016(3):163-175.
• [15] SCHIFF M. Love thy Neighbor:Trade,Migration and Social Capital[J]. European Journal of Political Economy,2002,18(2):87-107.
• [16] HILLER S. Does Immigrant Employment Matter for Export Sales? Evidence from Denmark[J]. Review of World Economic,2013,149(2):369-394.
• [17] GAO T. Ethnic Chinese Networks and International Investment:Evidence from Inward FDI in China[J].Journal of Asian Economic,2003,14(4):611-629.
• [18] HATZIGEORGIOU A,LODEFALK M. Trade,Migration and Integration-Evidence and Policy Implications[J].The World Economy,2015,38(12):2013-2048.
• [19] COMBES P,LAFOURCADE M,MAYER T. The Trade-creating Effects of Business and Social Networks:Evidence from France[J]. Journal of International Economic,2005,66(1):1-29.
• [20] LIN X,YANG X. From Human Capital Externality to Entrepreneurial Aspiration:Revisiting the Migration-trade Linkage[J]. Journal of World Business,2017,52(3):360-371.
• [21] GIOVANNETTI G,LANATI M. Do High-skill Immigrants Trigger High-quality Trade?[J]. The World Economy,2017,40(7):1345-1380.
• [22] MURAT M. Out of Sight,Not Out of Mind. Education Networks and International Trade[J]. World Development,2014,58(6):53-66.
• [23] AN R,CHIANG S-Y. International Students'Culture Learning and Cultural Adaptation in China[J]. Journal of Multilingual and Multicultural Development,2015,36(7):661-676.
• [24] OROZCO M. Tasting Identity:Trends in Migrant Demand for Home-country Goods[M]. Washington DC:U. S. Agency for International Development,2008.
• [25]樊纲，关志雄，姚枝仲.国际贸易结构分析:贸易品的技术分布[J]．经济研究，2006(8):70-80.
• [26]魏浩，王宸，毛日昇.国际间人才流动及其影响因素的实证分析[J]．管理世界，2012(1):33-45.
• [27] JAIMOVICH E. Import Diversification along the Growth Path[J]. Economic Letters,2012,117(1):306-310.
• [28] HERANDER M G,SAAVEDRA L A. Exports and the Structure of Immigrant-based Networks:The Role of Geographic Proximity[J]. Review of Economic and Statistics,2005,87(2):323-335.
• [29] CAMARERO M,TAMARIT C. Estimating the Export and Import Demand for Manufactured Goods:The Role of FDI[J]. Review of World Economic,2004,140(3):347-375.
• [30]谭旭虎.来华留学生跨文化教育中的问题及其对策[J]．高等教育研究，2020(1):37-43.
• [31] MUNDRA K. Immigration and International Trade:A Semiparametric Empirical Investigation[J]. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development,2005,14(1):65-91.
• [32]魏浩，赵春明，李晓庆.中国进口商品结构变化的估算:2000-2014年[J]．世界经济，2016(4):70-94.
• [33]魏浩，袁然.全球华人网络的出口贸易效应及其影响机制研究[J]．世界经济研究，2020(1):25-40+135.
• [34]魏浩，袁然，赖德胜.中国吸引留学生来华的影响因素研究———基于中国与全球172个国家双边数据的实证分析[J]．教育研究，2018(11):76-90.
• [35]王辉耀，苗绿.中国留学发展报告[M]．北京:社会科学文献出版社，2017:19-20.
• (1)消费品主要包括以下六类商品:112用于消费的初级食品和饮料、122用于消费的加工食品与饮料、522消费用运输设备、61未另归类的耐用消费品、62未另归类的半耐用消费品、63未另归类的非耐用消费品。
• (1)尽管相同的官方语言、是否接壤、是否存在殖民历史等变量是引力模型中普遍采用的控制变量，但考虑到本文样本国家的现实情况，即中国与OECD国家均不存在共同的官方语言、边界和殖民历史，本文计量方程中未选取以上变量作为控制变量。
• (2)本文同时报告了关于资本品和中间品的实证结果，一方面是为了能够对国际人才流动出口贸易效应有一个整体认识，另一方面是为了更好地认识国际人才流动对消费品出口影响的特殊性。
• (1)由于篇幅所限，本文并未列出稳健性检验详细结果，如需要可向作者索取。