林发勤;冯帆;符大海;

• 1:中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文针对国际贸易和经济增长之间的关系进行了重新检验。本文利用省份-国家层面的引力模型构造了以地理因素:距离、面积和比邻等因素为基础的国际贸易工具变量,并基于中国1991—2015年省份-国家层面的面板数据发现国际贸易与收入增长之间存在着非线性的倒U型分布关系,当国际贸易达到一定程度的时候,其对经济增长的影响由正变为负。众所周知,在识别国际贸易与经济增长间的因果关系时应克服其中的各种内生性问题。本文在控制地域与时间两个维度的情况下对两者的因果关系进行IV估计,在降低内生性的同时所得结论更符合当前经贸形势,对了解当今反全球化浪潮具有重要意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 经济增长;国际贸易;非线性;IV估计

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国对外贸易对青年受教育程度的异质性因果影响、内在机理及政策模拟研究”(71773148);国家自然科学基金青年项目“国际贸易与环境:因果效应、机制及对策研究”(71503281)

作者(Author): 林发勤;冯帆;符大海;

Email:

DOI: 10.13510/j.cnki.jit.2018.08.002

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